Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."